CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-05-22T22:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16954/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a large eruption from AR 2824 (N20E15) at 21:31Z, visible in SDO AIA imagery as well as STA EUVI 195. This eruption is associated with an M1.4 flare. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-25T20:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V3. ****************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 670.0 km/s Upgraded EAMv3 output: u_r = 409.410 Acceleration: 1.43299 Duration in seconds: 253630.36 Duration in days: 2.9355366 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.43 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 772.9 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/05/2021 Time: 20:36 UTLead Time: 43.20 hour(s)
Difference: 15.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-05-24T16:25Z
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